BLACK GOLD MARKET / FREE RESOURCES
Trading systems
Selected educational articles from the Black Gold Market journal. These are background guides, not current trade calls.
How to Track Hedge Fund Trades, and What the Filings Cannot Show
Form 13F is due 45 days after quarter end and covers only US listed shares, so a gold position never appears in it and the oldest holding that does is 136 days old. The CFTC report that does cover gold is three days old.
Read the article → MasterWhat Is Expectancy in Trading, and Why It Beats Chasing a Win Rate
Win rate is the number everyone quotes and the one that decides least. The break-even win rate at 3 to 1 is 25%, and it takes about 208 trades before your own expectancy figure means anything.
Read the article → MasterHow to Have an Edge in Trading, and How Long Before You Can Prove It
A hundred trades settles nothing. A trader with no edge shows a profit 46% of the time at that point, and a trader with a real edge still shows a loss 25.8% of the time.
Read the article → MasterHow to Increase Win Rate in Trading, and What It Costs You
Move your exits and the win rate goes from 39 percent to 75 percent on the same ten years of gold data. The 75 percent setting is the only one that loses money.
Read the article → MasterHow to Get Better at Trading When the Indicator Is Not the Problem
A 50 day moving average rule scored 51.41 percent on ten years of gold, while simply assuming gold rises scored 52.61. Improvement is not in the tool.
Read the article → EvidenceHow to Test Your Trading Strategy Without Fooling Yourself
Test twenty worthless strategies and 88 percent of the time one clears a 60 percent win rate on luck alone. How to tell an edge from a coincidence before you fund it.
Read the article → Risk firstHow to Be a Successful Trader in Forex, When Three in Four Accounts Lose
Regulators counted real accounts and found 74 to 89 percent of them losing. What success should mean when that is the base rate, and why size decides it.
Read the article → Trade managementWhy Managing the Trade Matters More Than the Entry
Your profit at the moment you enter is zero. Why the account is protected or lost in how you manage the trade, not where you got in.
Read the article → ProbabilityTrading Is a Game of Probability: Why One Red Day Says Nothing About You
Trading is a game of probability. Here's why you shouldn't judge your trading by one day, read it by the week, the candy-jar way, and Protect·Master·Grow.
Read the article → ConsistencyHow to Be a Consistent Trader (When You Keep Giving Back Your Wins)
You win on Monday and give it back by Friday. Here's how to be a consistent trader, a repeatable process that scores execution over outcome, so you stop the give-back cycle for good.
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