BLACK GOLD MARKET / FREE RESOURCES
Trade expectancy
Compare win rate, average outcomes and costs in the same monetary or risk units.
RESULT / YOUR INPUTS
Enter values and calculate.
Method and limitations
Expectancy = win probability × average win − loss probability × average loss − average cost. Break-even win rate = (average loss + cost) ÷ (average win + average loss). Use the same units in all inputs. A small or biased sample can mislead; this is not a forecast.